At present, the GDP is computed on 2004-05 base year.
Seeking
to present a more realistic picture of the economy, the government will release
a new series of national accounts with 2011-12 as base year for computing the
economic growth rate.
The
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data based on the new series has been released for
three consecutive years from 2011-12 in January 2015.
Till now, the GDP is computed on 2004-05 base year. “The new series will better
reflect the economy as it would include more sectors. However, it would be
difficult to say whether there would be any significant change in growth rates
for the previous years,” National Statistical Commission Chairman Pronab Sen,
who was associated with formulation of the new series, said.
He
further said that it may take about one year to ascertain about the change in
growth rates of different sectors and economy as a whole based on the new
series during the previous years.
“As
per the revision policy of the national accounts, the estimates for the year
2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14, due for release in January 2015, would have been
the third revised estimates, second revised and first revised estimates,
respectively,” as official statement said.
Since
these estimates have been compiled afresh, these would be referred to as “New
Series” Estimates, it added.
The
government will also be revising the base year for consumer price index (CPI),
wholesale price index (WPI) and index of industrial production (IIP).
The
new series of IIP and WPI are likely to be released by March 2016. The growth
in the new series of IIP and WPI would be incorporated in the provisional
estimates of 2014-15, to be released in May 2016.
The
National Statistical Commission has suggested that the base year for computing
national account should be revised every five years.
The
base year of the national accounts is changed periodically to take into account
the structural changes which take place in the economy and to depict a true
picture of the economy through macro aggregates.
The
first official estimates of national income were prepared by the Central
Statistical Organisation (CSO) with base year 1948-49 for the estimates at
constant prices.
These
estimates at constant (1948-49) prices along with the corresponding estimates
at current prices and the accounts of the Public Authorities were published in
the publication, ‘Estimates of National Income’ in 1956.
With
the gradual improvement in the availability of basic data over the years, a
comprehensive review of methodology for national accounts statistics has
constantly been undertaken with a view to updating the data base and shifting
the base year to a more recent year.
The
base years of the National Accounts Statistics series have been shifted from
1948-49 to 1960-61 in August 1967; from 1960-61 to 1970-71 in January 1978;
from 1970-71 to 1980-81 in February 1988; and from 1980-81 to 1993-94 in
February 1999.
Thereafter
it was changed to 2004-05 in 2006.
Article in The Hindu, dated Nov., 2, 2014
1 comment:
sir the GDP estimates are common globally,it is common to change base year in every five years, in India’s case, the magnitude of recent GDP revisions is somewhat higher than has been the case in the past.the new base year 2011-12 estimated the 2013-14 GDP growth at 6.9% compared with 4.7% as per the old series. Further, the advanced estimates under the new series suggested a 7.5% growth in the third quarter of 2014-15. Subsequently, it was revised down substantially to 6.6%.
sir I want to know about what type of new sector are included in this new base year?
Post a Comment