Kondratiev Cycle is a phenomenon of economic expansion and contraction over a fifty-year period.It is a long term cycle that exists in capitalist economies representing growth in economic period.Consisting three stages: expansion, stagnation and recession it was expanded to four different terms namely prosperity, recession, depression and improvement.There is no uniform progression in market economy. First Cycle triggered by the invention of steam engine and fundamental innovations in textile manufacturing. Second Cycle proved great era of big steel.Third Cycle carried by practical application of scientific knowledge while it ended on global economic crisis between late 1920 s and early 1930 s. The Fifth Kondrateiv because of increasing speed, information technology permitted all areas of society to turn into a global village of information.It ended at the turn of the century. Hence,from economists point of view, the first Kondrateiv began in 18th century which empirically demonstrated for 100 years.It depicts social and economic development over the next decades and thereby highlight the concept of innovation without causing much hindrance to same.
Kondratiev wave cycle or supercycles or long economic cycle is the hypothesized cycle of economic activity.In this cycle the period of a wave ranges from forty to fifty years, this is consist of the alternative intervals of high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth.The long cycle wave of economic activity is important carrier of change.This wave cycle is critical to world social process because this cycle of the economic activity is a original engine for long term and fundamental, technological changes in the world economy.This wave cycle is primary vehicle in the shaping of the global political and economical power structure. This also put impact a variety of other activity including energy demand etc and a variety of political activity like realignment, public mood, conflict etc.Over a past millennium, a number of economic activity have came to be characterized by Kondratiev wave cycle or supercycles or long wave cycle of the upswing and downswing.This wave cycle stating that capitalist economies go through phases much longer than ordinary business cycles.(This economic should have cycles of 45-50 years), where they perform alternatively well and poorly. For example the second industrial revolution lasted from approximately 1850-1900, the economy performed well in the first half of the cycle and then was characterized by depression in the second half.In the recent decades, there has been considerable progress in the historical economic and the history of technology and numerous investigations of the relationship between technological innovation and economic cycles. There is several versions of the cycles, and they are best interpreted using curves of industries. For example, railway started in the 1830, with steady growth for the 45 years, The technological cycle can be The industrial revolution 1771 The age of steam and railways 1830 Heavy engineering 1875 Oil, electricity, automobile, 1910 Information and mass communication 1970.
A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle believed to result from technological innovation and produce a long period of prosperity. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratiev, a Communist Russia era economist who noticed agricultural commodity and copper prices experienced long-term cycles. Kondratieff believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction. Economists have identified five Kondratieff Waves since the 18th century. The first resulted from the invention of the steam engine and ran from 1780 to 1830. The second cycle arose because of the steel industry and the spread of railroads. It ran from 1830 to 1880. The third cycle resulted from electrification and innovation in the chemical industry and ran from 1880 to 1930. The fourth cycle was fueled by autos and petrochemicals and lasted from 1930 to 1970. The fifth cycle was based on information technology and began in 1970 and ran through the present. Some economists believe we are at the start of a sixth wave and that this one will be driven by biotechnology and healthcare. In all the waves Kondratiev tries to show the different phases of each cycle. From the graph, it can easily interpret the propensity, recession, depression, and birth of new waves. The origin of different cycle took place because of innovation and advancement of technology in different fields. Kondratiev’s methodology involved the analysis of 21 statistical series, that is, 21 economic indicators such as the price index, the rate of interest, wage rates, rents, the volume of production, consumption, exports, imports, employment, etc., as well as their standard deviations. The reason behind of using such a long gap of 45- 50 years is the large-scale accumulation of innovative activity, that is inventions and processes modifications that required fifty or more years before complete insertion, absorption in the production method. His theory was not supported by Communist officials because they suggested that capitalist nations were not on an inevitable path to destruction but that they experienced ups and downs.
Kondrateiff cycle is a cycle of technological advancement .Though the nation's work on the theory of capitalism but one of the most prominent economist and communist Nikolai kondrateiv said that it's not always capitalism leads to crisis and destruction rather he said capitalism leads to innovation of new ideas to deal with the ongoing crisis.He said business can lead to prosperity if there is emphasis on the technology.f rom past 10 to 15 years too much technological advancement is seen .for example invention of drones,which has multiple functions to do,firstly it is used in military ,secondly as a toy,thirdly as an equipment by farmer to kill the pests and insects around the field.I invention of apps like google tez and pay pal which are used in business transactions.He said technology never evolves in a systematic rate and period ,it rather evolves within a span of 50 to 60 years. whatever said by him became true in today's era as there is a mammoth of technological advancement one such example today are of artificial intelligence ,telecommunication,space travel and many more.
The Kondratieff Wave is a concept that was introduced during the Russian Communist era by a sociologist economist, Nikolai D. Kondratieff. The economist noticed that agricultural products and copper prices underwent long-term economic cycles that were believed to be as a result of technological innovation and periods of evolution. Kondratieff identified several long-term cycles that alternate between high growth and slow-growth economic cycles. The cycles were based on agricultural commodities and copper prices in European countries, where he observed periods of evolution and self-correction in the different economic activities that were carried out in the domestic economies. The cycles lasted 50 to 60 years, and they comprised various stages that were repetitive in nature. Kondratiev's analysis described how international capitalism had gone through many such "great depressions" and as such were a normal part of the international mercantile credit system. The long term business cycles that he identified through meticulous research are now called "Kondratieff" cycles or "K" waves.
Criticism of the Kondratieff Long Wave Theory
To date, a section of academic economists does not accept the long wave theory presented by Kondratieff. One of the reasons why some economists refuse to accept the theory is due to the lack of formal universal agreements on the start and end years of a wave cycle.
Although each cycle is said to last between 50 to 60 years, there is no definite period to mark the start of a new cycle, and it creates confusion on the exact period a cycle started or ended
A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle believed to result from technological innovation and produce a long period of prosperity. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff. He believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction. Economists have identified five Kondratieff Waves since the 18th century. There is no uniform progression in market economy; in fact, upturns and downturns regularly take turns with each other. There are various cycles that exists in the market economy.The short business cycles that last approximately three years are called Kitchin cycles; the medium-term ones lasting between 7 to 11 years are called Juglar cycles. However, there are also long economic cycles that last between 40 to 60 years. They are named Kondratieff cycles. As we can clearly infer from the above chart.The first resulted from the invention of the steam engine. The second cycle arose because of the steel industry and the spread of railroads. The third cycle resulted from electrification and innovation in the chemical industry. The fourth cycle was fueled by autos and petrochemicals.The fifth cycle was based on information technology. Some economists believe we are at the start of a sixth wave and that this one will be driven by biotechnology and healthcare. The carrier of this new Kondratieff cycle will be health in a holistic sense. The sixth Kondra¬tieff is carried by an improved productivity in handling health. The main source for economy growth is productivity pro¬gress. However, in its early phase it does not have the power to ensure a steady boom. Kondratieff cycles can be empirically demonstrated for more than 1000 years. When such regularity exists over such a long period and given the many economic, technological and social changes that took place during this time, it can simply not be a coincidence. The challen¬ge in the early 21st century consists of identifying the sixth Kondratieff and consistently using it. Those companies, regions and countries that succeed in this, will be among the winners. Harshal Sareen 18bal016
What is the Cycle all about? A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle believed to result from technological innovation and produce a long period of prosperity. Nikolai D. Kondratieff (also spelled "Kondratiev"), a Communist Russia era economist was the person who found the theory and noticed that agricultural commodity and copper prices experienced long-term cycles. Kondratieff believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction. So, the cycle indicates about of long-duration economic cycle of major capital goods expansion that plays out over a period of about 60 years and underlies the boom bust cycles characteristics of Capitalist Economy. Herein above we have been introduced with the mechanism as to what is shown by the Cycle as it goes from the time when the factors according to the time are responsible for economic growth. Today we are in the era of 6th Kondratieff Wave but we should know about the previous 5 Cycles and they are given as here The Industrial Revolution The Age of Steam and Railways The Age of Steel, Electricity, and Heavy Engineering The Age of Oil, the Automobile, and Mass Production The Age of Information and Telecommunications So, at present we are introduced to Sixth Kondratieff Cycle and it is more about the economic growth with the help of machinery and capital with human capital being working and that is by the virtue of jobs been given to them which will increase the productivity which at last affects the growth of the economy at last. Here when we observe we conclude that the cycle was made according to the circumstances of the time which were going at that time and since then they have arrived at the Sixth where they find the job opportunity and application of human resource at proper place to be a reason for economic growth which is acceptable at some point but what is wrong that it is opposed by many.
Criticism to the Kondratieff Cycle The criticism to this theory is that the economist never researched enough before bringing the cycle to the world and there are many allegation that he has not taken the actual circumstances into the picture and that his cycle is not according to the practical circumstances which also let to the explanation that his cycle can be applied only in the Capitalist Countries.
Opinion Moreover, when we see the point of observation then we cannot apply this theory in India since we are not a pure Capitalist Economy. Even the Sixth Kondratieff Cycle will not be completely applicable in the Indian Economy since it is more about giving jobs for economic growth where the priority should be given proper living to millions and then focusing on the per capita income which will lead to improvising in the standard of living.
The theory of cycles was first given by Jean Charles Sismondi who was a French economist. The theory consists of four phases; first is expansion second is crisis third is be recession and fourth is recovery. Kondratieff wave or Kondratiev cycle refers to a business cycle with a period ranging from forty to sixty years. It is a period representing change in the economic cycle. It was given by Nikolai Kondratieff he was a Russian economist. It is a cycle which is a resultant of an innovation which leads to prosperity. So far five Kondratiev cycles are found. As we can see in the diagram the first cycle began in 1800 and the reason for it was the steam engine and the textile industry. The second Kondratiev began around 1840-50 which was because of the innovation of steel and the effects of it on the railway industry which continued till 1880. The third cycle began from 1880 and continued till 1930 it was a result of electrification when the discovery of electro-dynamic principle which made possible conversion of mechanical energy to electrical energy, and chemical engineering was another factor for the third cycle. The factor behind the fourth cycle was petrochemical industry which subsequently leads to the rise of automobiles industry the cycle started around 1930 and ended in 1970 because of increase in price of OIL by OPEC countries. The fifth wave came from the invention of information and technology, the invention of computer and it even helped a lot in globalization, the cycle ended at the very beginning of the present century. It has been believed that we are currently in the sixth cycle and this cycle is assumed to be fueled by health care and biotechnology. There are criticisms of the theory but the mostly said point is that the waves do not have a fixed time period to mark the start and the end of the wave which leads to confusion. The primary concern for current Kondratieff theory in the present century is to identify the sixth wave and then focusing on the use of it. -Aditya 18bal004
Following a multi year time of relative worldwide monetary peacefulness - the purported time of "Great Moderation" - the US economy endured a money related emergency in 2008 that set off the "Incomparable Recession". These occasions have produced new enthusiasm for hypotheses that can clarify significant lots of extension that end all of a sudden with profound subsidences. One methodology, which has been mentally unfashionable for a long time, is the hypothesis of long monetary waves Business cycles of shorter term can be clarified by financial systems that create repetitive vacillations in movement. Be that as it may, the mechanical perspective on long waves is increasingly tricky and testing. While there is strong proof for shorter business cycles and the endogenous elements of shorter cycles seems clear and unmistakable, long wave cycles are progressively questionable and include diverse hypothetical instruments that are more diligently to confirm exactly to some degree since information is unavoidably increasingly constrained attributable to the decreased recurrence of such cycles. Several different theories of the long wave exist. These include Kondratieff’s theory of cycles in production and relative prices; Kuznets’ theory of cycles arising from infrastructure investments; Schumpeter`s theory of cycles due to waves of technological innovation; Keynes – Kaldor – Kalecki demand and investment oriented theories of cycles; Goodwin`s theory of cyclical growth based on employment and wage share dynamics; and Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis whereby capitalist economies show a genetic propensity to boom-bust cycles.
The center of Kondratieff's contention laid on his observational investigation of the macroeconomic execution of the USA, England, France, and Germany somewhere in the range of 1790 and 1920. That examination inspected wholesale price levels, interest rates, production and consumption of coal and pig iron, production of lead, and price movements. De-slanting the information and after that utilizing an averaging strategy of nine years to wipe out the pattern just as shorter influxes of the Kitchin type, Kondratieff guaranteed he had distinguished long wave consistency in the information joined with intermediate waves inside. He reasoned that such an example mirrored a procedure of persistent advancement, and potential clarifications for such long wave cycles incorporated a) changes in technology; b) wars and revolutions; c) appearance of new countries on the world map; and d) fluctuations in the production of gold.
While these four instruments seemed substantial, appeared valid, he also argued that external factors could not be the sole determinants of regular cycles. The missing part, Kondratieff hypothesized, was the collection of going preceding events and the development of economic, social, and political relationships that helped endogenize these external factors. In such manner, Kondratieff indicated the expansive scale "gathering" of innovative action (i.e., innovations and procedure alterations requiring at least fifty years before being assimilated into the gainful procedure.) as a significant endogenizing instrument.
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Kondratiev Cycle is a phenomenon of economic expansion and contraction over a fifty-year period.It is a long term cycle that exists in capitalist economies representing growth in economic period.Consisting three stages: expansion, stagnation and recession it was expanded to four different terms namely prosperity, recession, depression and improvement.There is no uniform progression in market economy.
First Cycle triggered by the invention of steam engine and fundamental innovations in textile manufacturing. Second Cycle proved great era of big steel.Third Cycle carried by practical application of scientific knowledge while it ended on global economic crisis between late 1920 s and early 1930 s.
The Fifth Kondrateiv because of increasing speed, information technology permitted all areas of society to turn into a global village of information.It ended at the turn of the century.
Hence,from economists point of view, the first Kondrateiv began in 18th century which empirically demonstrated for 100 years.It depicts social and economic development over the next decades and thereby highlight the concept of innovation without causing much hindrance to same.
Kondratiev wave cycle or supercycles or long economic cycle is the hypothesized cycle of economic activity.In this cycle the period of a wave ranges from forty to fifty years, this is consist of the alternative intervals of high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth.The long cycle wave of economic activity is important carrier of change.This wave cycle is critical to world social process because this cycle of the economic activity is a original engine for long term and fundamental, technological changes in the world economy.This wave cycle is primary vehicle in the shaping of the global political and economical power structure. This also put impact a variety of other activity including energy demand etc and a variety of political activity like realignment, public mood, conflict etc.Over a past millennium, a number of economic activity have came to be characterized by Kondratiev wave cycle or supercycles or long wave cycle of the upswing and downswing.This wave cycle stating that capitalist economies go through phases much longer than ordinary business cycles.(This economic should have cycles of 45-50 years), where they perform alternatively well and poorly. For example the second industrial revolution lasted from approximately 1850-1900, the economy performed well in the first half of the cycle and then was characterized by depression in the second half.In the recent decades, there has been considerable progress in the historical economic and the history of technology and numerous investigations of the relationship between technological innovation and economic cycles.
There is several versions of the cycles, and they are best interpreted using curves of industries. For example, railway started in the 1830, with steady growth for the 45 years,
The technological cycle can be
The industrial revolution 1771
The age of steam and railways 1830
Heavy engineering 1875
Oil, electricity, automobile, 1910
Information and mass communication 1970.
A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle believed to result from technological innovation and produce a long period of prosperity. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratiev, a Communist Russia era economist who noticed agricultural commodity and copper prices experienced long-term cycles. Kondratieff believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction.
Economists have identified five Kondratieff Waves since the 18th century. The first resulted from the invention of the steam engine and ran from 1780 to 1830. The second cycle arose because of the steel industry and the spread of railroads. It ran from 1830 to 1880. The third cycle resulted from electrification and innovation in the chemical industry and ran from 1880 to 1930. The fourth cycle was fueled by autos and petrochemicals and lasted from 1930 to 1970. The fifth cycle was based on information technology and began in 1970 and ran through the present. Some economists believe we are at the start of a sixth wave and that this one will be driven by biotechnology and healthcare.
In all the waves Kondratiev tries to show the different phases of each cycle. From the graph, it can easily interpret the propensity, recession, depression, and birth of new waves. The origin of different cycle took place because of innovation and advancement of technology in different fields.
Kondratiev’s methodology involved the analysis of 21 statistical series, that is,
21 economic indicators such as the price index, the rate of interest, wage rates,
rents, the volume of production, consumption, exports, imports, employment, etc.,
as well as their standard deviations.
The reason behind of using such a long gap of 45- 50 years is the large-scale accumulation of innovative activity, that is inventions and processes modifications that required fifty or more years before complete insertion, absorption in the production method.
His theory was not supported by Communist officials because they suggested that capitalist nations were not on an inevitable path to destruction but that they experienced ups and downs.
Tarun Agarwal (18bal135)
Kondrateiff cycle is a cycle of technological advancement .Though the nation's work on the theory of capitalism but one of the most prominent economist and communist Nikolai kondrateiv said that it's not always capitalism leads to crisis and destruction rather he said capitalism leads to innovation of new ideas to deal with the ongoing crisis.He said business can lead to prosperity if there is emphasis on the technology.f rom past 10 to 15 years too much technological advancement is seen .for example invention of drones,which has multiple functions to do,firstly it is used in military ,secondly as a toy,thirdly as an equipment by farmer to kill the pests and insects around the field.I invention of apps like google tez and pay pal which are used in business transactions.He said technology never evolves in a systematic rate and period ,it rather evolves within a span of 50 to 60 years. whatever said by him became true in today's era as there is a mammoth of technological advancement one such example today are of artificial intelligence ,telecommunication,space travel and many more.
The Kondratieff Wave is a concept that was introduced during the Russian Communist era by a sociologist economist, Nikolai D. Kondratieff. The economist noticed that agricultural products and copper prices underwent long-term economic cycles that were believed to be as a result of technological innovation and periods of evolution.
Kondratieff identified several long-term cycles that alternate between high growth and slow-growth economic cycles. The cycles were based on agricultural commodities and copper prices in European countries, where he observed periods of evolution and self-correction in the different economic activities that were carried out in the domestic economies. The cycles lasted 50 to 60 years, and they comprised various stages that were repetitive in nature. Kondratiev's analysis described how international capitalism had gone through many such "great depressions" and as such were a normal part of the international mercantile credit system. The long term business cycles that he identified through meticulous research are now called "Kondratieff" cycles or "K" waves.
Criticism of the Kondratieff Long Wave Theory
To date, a section of academic economists does not accept the long wave theory presented by Kondratieff. One of the reasons why some economists refuse to accept the theory is due to the lack of formal universal agreements on the start and end years of a wave cycle.
Although each cycle is said to last between 50 to 60 years, there is no definite period to mark the start of a new cycle, and it creates confusion on the exact period a cycle started or ended
Sarthak Gupta
18bal053
A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle believed to result from technological innovation and produce a long period of prosperity. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff. He believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction. Economists have identified five Kondratieff Waves since the 18th century.
There is no uniform progression in market economy; in fact, upturns and downturns regularly take turns with each other. There are various cycles that exists in the market economy.The short business cycles that last approximately three years are called Kitchin cycles; the medium-term ones lasting between 7 to 11 years are called Juglar cycles. However, there are also long economic cycles that last between 40 to 60 years. They are named Kondratieff cycles.
As we can clearly infer from the above chart.The first resulted from the invention of the steam engine. The second cycle arose because of the steel industry and the spread of railroads. The third cycle resulted from electrification and innovation in the chemical industry. The fourth cycle was fueled by autos and petrochemicals.The fifth cycle was based on information technology.
Some economists believe we are at the start of a sixth wave and that this one will be driven by biotechnology and healthcare. The carrier of this new Kondratieff cycle will be health in a holistic sense. The sixth Kondra¬tieff is carried by an improved productivity in handling health. The main source for economy growth is productivity pro¬gress. However, in its early phase it does not have the power to ensure a steady boom.
Kondratieff cycles can be empirically demonstrated for more than 1000 years. When such regularity exists over such a long period and given the many economic, technological and social changes that took place during this time, it can simply not be a coincidence. The challen¬ge in the early 21st century consists of identifying the sixth Kondratieff and consistently using it. Those companies, regions and countries that succeed in this, will be among the winners.
Harshal Sareen
18bal016
What is the Cycle all about?
A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle believed to result from technological innovation and produce a long period of prosperity. Nikolai D. Kondratieff (also spelled "Kondratiev"), a Communist Russia era economist was the person who found the theory and noticed that agricultural commodity and copper prices experienced long-term cycles. Kondratieff believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction. So, the cycle indicates about of long-duration economic cycle of major capital goods expansion that plays out over a period of about 60 years and underlies the boom bust cycles characteristics of Capitalist Economy.
Herein above we have been introduced with the mechanism as to what is shown by the Cycle as it goes from the time when the factors according to the time are responsible for economic growth. Today we are in the era of 6th Kondratieff Wave but we should know about the previous 5 Cycles and they are given as here
The Industrial Revolution
The Age of Steam and Railways
The Age of Steel, Electricity, and Heavy Engineering
The Age of Oil, the Automobile, and Mass Production
The Age of Information and Telecommunications
So, at present we are introduced to Sixth Kondratieff Cycle and it is more about the economic growth with the help of machinery and capital with human capital being working and that is by the virtue of jobs been given to them which will increase the productivity which at last affects the growth of the economy at last.
Here when we observe we conclude that the cycle was made according to the circumstances of the time which were going at that time and since then they have arrived at the Sixth where they find the job opportunity and application of human resource at proper place to be a reason for economic growth which is acceptable at some point but what is wrong that it is opposed by many.
Criticism to the Kondratieff Cycle
The criticism to this theory is that the economist never researched enough before bringing the cycle to the world and there are many allegation that he has not taken the actual circumstances into the picture and that his cycle is not according to the practical circumstances which also let to the explanation that his cycle can be applied only in the Capitalist Countries.
Opinion
Moreover, when we see the point of observation then we cannot apply this theory in India since we are not a pure Capitalist Economy. Even the Sixth Kondratieff Cycle will not be completely applicable in the Indian Economy since it is more about giving jobs for economic growth where the priority should be given proper living to millions and then focusing on the per capita income which will lead to improvising in the standard of living.
- Aashvi
The theory of cycles was first given by Jean Charles Sismondi who was a French economist. The theory consists of four phases; first is expansion second is crisis third is be recession and fourth is recovery. Kondratieff wave or Kondratiev cycle refers to a business cycle with a period ranging from forty to sixty years. It is a period representing change in the economic cycle. It was given by Nikolai Kondratieff he was a Russian economist. It is a cycle which is a resultant of an innovation which leads to prosperity. So far five Kondratiev cycles are found. As we can see in the diagram the first cycle began in 1800 and the reason for it was the steam engine and the textile industry. The second Kondratiev began around 1840-50 which was because of the innovation of steel and the effects of it on the railway industry which continued till 1880. The third cycle began from 1880 and continued till 1930 it was a result of electrification when the discovery of electro-dynamic principle which made possible conversion of mechanical energy to electrical energy, and chemical engineering was another factor for the third cycle. The factor behind the fourth cycle was petrochemical industry which subsequently leads to the rise of automobiles industry the cycle started around 1930 and ended in 1970 because of increase in price of OIL by OPEC countries. The fifth wave came from the invention of information and technology, the invention of computer and it even helped a lot in globalization, the cycle ended at the very beginning of the present century. It has been believed that we are currently in the sixth cycle and this cycle is assumed to be fueled by health care and biotechnology. There are criticisms of the theory but the mostly said point is that the waves do not have a fixed time period to mark the start and the end of the wave which leads to confusion. The primary concern for current Kondratieff theory in the present century is to identify the sixth wave and then focusing on the use of it.
-Aditya
18bal004
Following a multi year time of relative worldwide monetary peacefulness - the purported time of "Great Moderation" - the US economy endured a money related emergency in 2008 that set off the "Incomparable Recession". These occasions have produced new enthusiasm for hypotheses that can clarify significant lots of extension that end all of a sudden with profound subsidences. One methodology, which has been mentally unfashionable for a long time, is the hypothesis of long monetary waves Business cycles of shorter term can be clarified by financial systems that create repetitive vacillations in movement. Be that as it may, the mechanical perspective on long waves is increasingly tricky and testing. While there is strong proof for shorter business cycles and the endogenous elements of shorter cycles seems clear and unmistakable, long wave cycles are progressively questionable and include diverse hypothetical instruments that are more diligently to confirm exactly to some degree since information is unavoidably increasingly constrained attributable to the decreased recurrence of such cycles.
Several different theories of the long wave exist. These include Kondratieff’s theory of cycles in production and relative prices; Kuznets’ theory of cycles arising from infrastructure investments; Schumpeter`s theory of cycles due to waves of technological innovation; Keynes – Kaldor – Kalecki demand and investment oriented theories of cycles; Goodwin`s theory of cyclical growth based on employment and wage share dynamics; and Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis whereby capitalist economies show a genetic propensity to boom-bust cycles.
The center of Kondratieff's contention laid on his observational investigation of the macroeconomic execution of the USA, England, France, and Germany somewhere in the range of 1790 and 1920. That examination inspected wholesale price levels, interest rates, production and consumption of coal and pig iron, production of lead, and price movements. De-slanting the information and after that utilizing an averaging strategy of nine years to wipe out the pattern just as shorter influxes of the Kitchin type, Kondratieff guaranteed he had distinguished long wave consistency in the information joined with intermediate waves inside. He reasoned that such an example mirrored a procedure of persistent advancement, and potential clarifications for such long wave cycles incorporated a) changes in technology; b) wars and revolutions; c) appearance of new countries on the world map; and d) fluctuations in the production of gold.
While these four instruments seemed substantial, appeared valid, he also argued that external factors could not be the sole determinants of regular cycles. The missing part, Kondratieff hypothesized, was the collection of going preceding events and the development of economic, social, and political relationships that helped endogenize these external factors. In such manner, Kondratieff indicated the expansive scale "gathering" of innovative action (i.e., innovations and procedure alterations requiring at least fifty years before being assimilated into the gainful procedure.) as a significant endogenizing instrument.
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