Thursday, August 13, 2015

5 Things to Know About China’s Currency Devaluation

China on Tuesday devalued its currency in a way that left it 1.9% weaker versus the U.S. dollar. The move will likely have a ripple effect through financial markets as well as in politics, as China is the world’s largest trader and the yuan is increasingly used overseas. Here are five things you need to know about Beijing’s latest move.
1 What did China do?
China tightly controls the value of its currency by setting a daily rate for the yuan versus the dollar. In China’s domestic market, traders are allowed to push the yuan 2% stronger or weaker for the day. But the People’s Bank of China often ignores those market signals when it sets the next day’s rate, sometimes setting the yuan stronger versus the dollar when the market is signaling it sees the yuan as weaker. The central bank said it will now take the previous day’s trading into account – and it attributes that move to Tuesday’s sharp drop.

2 Why did China do it?
In its statement, the PBOC said it wants to bring the yuan more in line with the market. But the move also comes as China’s important export sector has weakened – and overall economic growth looks sluggish. Over the weekend, Chinese customs officials said July exports fell 8.3% compared with a year ago. A weaker currency helps China’s exporters sell their goods abroad.

3 What does this mean for the rest of the world?
The most immediate effect is that it signals to the world that Beijing thinks the Chinese economy is sputtering. The move suggests China is looking for ways to get it going again. But it also has major implications for the U.S. and other countries that trade with China because it puts their companies at a disadvantage. In the U.S., it will likely reignite criticism that Beijing keeps the currency artificially low to help its own manufacturers – a charge that could get added impetus during the presidential election campaign.

4 What does this mean for markets?
The move puts pressure on other central banks around the world to push down their own currencies to help their own exporters and to prevent destabilizing capital flows. The move could hurt commodities markets because it signals potential weak demand from China. It could also accelerate capital outflows out of China, especially if investors expect further devaluations.

5 What’s next?
The move could add to tensions ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S. and his meetings with President Barack Obama, which is set for late September. It could also complicate China’s efforts to get the yuan added to a basket of currencies tracked by the International Monetary Fund – efforts aimed at giving the yuan greater acceptance abroad. Longer-term, the move raises questions about Beijing’s pledge to liberalize its economy. On one hand, making the yuan more market-driven is a step in that direction. But the move also appears to be designed to help exporters, at a time when China has been looking for other, more dependable sources of growth.



By: Carlos Tajeda, Article in Wall Street Journal

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

i am not getting what is the ideology of china behind devaluing is own currency. Sir correct me if i am wrong may be china want to show the world off that its "THE" super power and its one move either good or bad affect the world to great extend."A weaker currency helps China’s exporters sell their goods abroad" a reason given in the post. but i think the real reason is far beyond this. is china doing this purposely?

Khwaish said...

In the above case it can clearly be seen that it might be very profitable for the domestic market to devalue the currency in order to increase the exports but any way this strategy is not going to work in the long run as in the long run due to devaluation of the currency the market of export is going to shrink. Similar to the concept that when price of a good is increased the demand for it decreases i.e the domestic market might feel the burden while paying the high price for the imports in future also will give rise to the situation where less countries would want to trade with the home country because the price they get will be very low as compared to what they might be offered in another country and would rather prefer investing their money in some other country as a result a lot of trade barriers would arise. This cycle will continue till there would be negligible amount of foreign companies trading in our country and this might instill the lack of competition among the domestic market as it is this competition with foreign companies which always gives them a push to perform better and better. Due to this deficiency there would be a monopoly of the domestic producers in the market and the buyers will have to buy the products at whatever price that sellers set.So this is not a very intelligent move made by China as this might also reflect negatively on the international relations as pointed out in the above case.

Unknown said...

What we see from outside may not be the situation from inside.No one knows the strategy of china of devaluing its currency.The most positive interpretation that can be drawn from this move is that it will give a robust increase in the market flow.But this also has adversities to gift in future that is it is going to stagnate the global trading activities prevalent in the market of china as the imports and export activities will be reduced due to the unattractive market.The negative aspect of currency devaluation is that it may lower productivity,since imports of capital equipment and machinery may become too expensive.As well,devaluation significantly reduces the overseas purchasing power of a nation's citizens.Therefore in the long run china is going to be affected by its acts which will not have the stable benefits.

Arun B. Prasad said...

Dear Deepansh, Sonakshi & Yuthika,

Happy Independance Day.

Any currency is a measure of value of the wealth / production in a country. Usually, a currency should reflect the correct value. In case a country goes through a slow economic activity the correct remedy is to bring reforms / have monetary or fiscal policy measures. In case a country is excessively dependant on foreign trade, it would be subject to disturbances as the trading activity may be good and bad.

In case of China, due to excess leveraging and huge investment connected to foreign trade the country is going through a mild recession. The fear is, this recession should not lead to further stagnation and slowing down of economic activity. In order to rectify slow economic activity, the step of devaluation has been adopted.

I am happy to see that all of you have identified the economic, political and strategic reasons behind this move.

Warm Regards,
Arun